{"id":1284,"date":"2026-10-25T20:47:20","date_gmt":"2026-10-26T02:47:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/intelligenxe.com\/?p=1284"},"modified":"2026-11-05T20:48:05","modified_gmt":"2026-11-06T03:48:05","slug":"ai-now-forecasts-about-as-well-as-the-best-human-forecasters","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/intelligenxe.com\/?p=1284","title":{"rendered":"AI now forecasts about as well as the best human forecasters"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">AI now forecasts about as well as the best human forecasters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.forecastbench.org\/leaderboards\/\">ForecastBench<\/a>, run by the <a href=\"https:\/\/forecastingresearch.substack.com\/p\/ai-models-have-likely-reached-parity\">Forecasting Research Institute<\/a>, scores predictions about real-world events. As of 24 October, six AI entries rank above its superforecasters, an elite panel of human forecasters, though none by more than the margin of error. <a href=\"https:\/\/forecastingresearch.substack.com\/p\/introducing-the-brier-index\">In March, the humans still led<\/a>. <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/Research_FRI\/status\/2102411966103093386\">A rematch with new forecasts from the superforecasters<\/a> starts 25 October.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Every strategy is a bet on the future. The case for checking it against an independent view just got stronger.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>Strategist<\/strong><\/em> is built to supply that view: an independent strategy for any public company, with management&#8217;s benchmarked against it and every source shown.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Which bet in your strategy has never faced an independent view? <a href=\"https:\/\/strategist.intelligenxe.com\">strategist.intelligenxe.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>AI now forecasts about as well as the best human forecasters. ForecastBench, run by the Forecasting Research Institute, scores predictions about real-world events. As of 24 October, six AI entries rank above its superforecasters, an elite panel of human forecasters, &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/intelligenxe.com\/?p=1284\">Continued<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1285,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"kt_blocks_editor_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1284","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-blog"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/intelligenxe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1284","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/intelligenxe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/intelligenxe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/intelligenxe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/intelligenxe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1284"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/intelligenxe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1284\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1286,"href":"https:\/\/intelligenxe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1284\/revisions\/1286"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/intelligenxe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/1285"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/intelligenxe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1284"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/intelligenxe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1284"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/intelligenxe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1284"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}