AI now forecasts about as well as the best human forecasters.
ForecastBench, run by the Forecasting Research Institute, scores predictions about real-world events. As of 24 October, six AI entries rank above its superforecasters, an elite panel of human forecasters, though none by more than the margin of error. In March, the humans still led. A rematch with new forecasts from the superforecasters starts 25 October.
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